November 11, 2007

Gone Bowlin...

A great breakdown of Texas and the BCS can be found here. The point is: beat Aggy and Texas has a great chance at a BCS bowl, which we thought might happen. Considering all that's happened this season, that would be a heck of an accomplishment for the Horns. To summarize the post:

Assuming LSU and Oregon go to championship, Sugar gets first choice.
Ten BCS bowl spots, two championship teams, four other BCS automatic bids.
Four at-large bids.
Let's assume Hawaii gets one of them after climbing to the top twelve.
Only BCS teams in the top four get automatic at-large spots, can't predict the future so let's just assume that doesn't happen.
So, three at-large bids remain.

At-large candidates (if they don't win their conference championship:
Georgia, LSU, WVU, Ohio State, Arizona State, USC, Texas, KU, Mizzou, OU.

Here is how each team could get an at-large bid:

Georgia -- Loses the SEC Championship game, hard to believe a 3-loss UGA team gets an at-large over Texas.
LSU -- Loses to UGA in SEC Championship game, hard to believe a 2-loss LSU team gets an at-large bid in a BCS game (remember, Sugar Bowl will be taken by UGA in this scenario).
WVU -- Does not win Big East, hard to believe a 2-loss WVU team gets an at-large bid over Texas.
Ohio State -- Loses to Michigan, hard to believe a 2-loss OSU team losing two straight gets an at-large bid over Texas.
Arizona State -- No way a two-loss ASU team gets in over Texas, a one-loss ASU team may get a Rose Bowl bid if Oregon goes to the national championship game.
USC -- A 2-loss USC team probably gets a Rose Bowl bid over Texas, but USC playing ASU next week means that only one of these Pac-10 teams can get an at-large bid. We'll give one of the at-large bids to the ASU/USC winner.
KU -- A 1-loss KU team goes to the Cotton/Holiday Bowl in our opinion. An undefeated KU team goes to the national championship game in our opinion. KU losing would be good for Texas as it removes LSU & Oregon as at-large possibilities.
Mizzou -- Assuming a 1-loss Mizzou team does not go to the title game, a 2-loss Mizzou team seems like a less attractive option than a 2-loss Texas team. A 1-loss Mizzou team goes to the Fiesta Bowl as the Big XII representative, so they are unlikely to be an at-large team.
OU -- Here's the trick. If OU wins the Big XII it probably goes to the Fiesta Bowl. If it does not the question becomes which is more attractive to a BCS Bowl: a 2-loss Texas team having won 6 straight or a 2-loss OU team coming off a conference championship loss. Our guess is that Texas gets the nod as the bigger television audience that will travel better and stay in hotels as opposed to trailers.

So, the guess right now for at-large spots: Georgia, Texas, Hawaii, ASU/USC.

Sugar Bowl here we come?

Of course it's all moot if Texas doesn't beat Aggy.

1 comment:

Jaybro said...

Before y'all post your next top ten, I'd just like to go ahead and forewarn you that you're hypocrites if you don't put KU at #1. Your logic for keeping Ohio State there was that they were undefeated in a major conference. Now KU is and LSU isn't. I think LSU is the better team, as you do, but as you've said, thinking it is not enough. I think you're full aware that according to your own logic and arguments, KU must be the 40acre top team.